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Free calculator
Estimate a bet’s edge from your probability and the offered odds.
Calculator inputs
Updates as you type
Enter your estimated win probability. No-vig odds can provide a market-based estimate, not a known true probability.
Expected value compares the probability-weighted return of a bet against its cost. Enter the odds you can get and the probability you believe is fair, and the calculator shows the expected profit per unit staked and the edge as a percentage.
Any positive EV is theoretically profitable, but practical thresholds are higher because closing lines, limits, and variance eat into thin edges. Most value bettors act on edges above 2 to 3 percent.
Usually from a sharp bookmaker's odds or an exchange price, stripped of margin. The closer your probability estimate is to the true market, the more reliable the EV reading.
No. Single bets can lose even with a positive edge. Profit comes from volume: over many bets, a positive edge compounds while variance averages out.